Storm Prediction Center
SPC MD 1754
MD 1754 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN UPPER MI INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI
Mesoscale Discussion 1754
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026
Areas affected...Eastern Upper MI into northern Lower MI
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 270439Z - 270645Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms may increase in coverage
overnight.
DISCUSSION...A small storm cluster has recently intensified across
southeast Lake Superior and adjacent Upper MI. This convection is
potentially being aided by a low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough
moving southeastward across the region. There may be some tendency
for storms to increase in coverage overnight and move
south-southeastward along the primary buoyancy gradient. Relatively
steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and effective shear
of 40+ kt will continue to conditionally support storm organization.
Isolated hail may occur with the strongest cells, while any notable
upscale growth could result in an increasing wind-damage threat.
Uncertainty remains high regarding storm evolution overnight, and
short-term guidance continues to struggle with handling ongoing
convection. While the severe threat may remain relatively isolated
in this region, watch issuance is possible if observational trends
support an increasing coverage of severe threat.
..Dean/Smith.. 07/27/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...
LAT...LON 46758598 46888488 46428405 45428356 44138360 43878380
43878492 44008589 44268637 44988676 45278678 45608683
46518621 46758598
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
SPC MD 1753
MD 1753 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 517... FOR SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN INTO NORTHERN AL AND FAR NORTHEAST MS
Mesoscale Discussion 1753
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026
Areas affected...Southwest/southern middle TN into northern AL and
far northeast MS
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 517...
Valid 270406Z - 270530Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 517
continues.
SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind will remain possible into the early
morning hours.
DISCUSSION...A long-lived storm cluster continues to move southward
across parts of western/middle TN late this evening. Some weakening
has been noted over the last 1-2 hours, and a gradual weakening
trend is expected to continue, due to weak low-level flow and weaker
deep-layer flow/shear with southward extent. However, very rich
low-level moisture continues to support strong to extreme buoyancy,
with downstream MLCAPE in the 3000-4000 J/kg range. This buoyancy
may aid in occasional updraft intensification along the gust front,
and a continuation of at least an isolated damaging-wind threat into
the early overnight hours across northern AL and far northeast MS.
..Dean.. 07/27/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...
LAT...LON 35858833 35718707 35468664 34648665 34188773 34358840
35058868 35448867 35858833
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
Read more