GSP Forecast Discussion
910
FXUS62 KGSP 142343
AFDGSP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
743 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation forecast was for the 00Z TAF issuance.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Heat Advisory in effect for most of the Upstate, NE GA, and
the Charlotte Metro area for Saturday afternoon. Hot and humid
weather continues into next week, with triple digit heat index
values expected over the low terrain each afternoon.
2. Scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms develop each
afternoon into early next week. Some strong to severe storms,
as well as isolated nuisance flooding, will be possible each day.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Heat Advisory in effect for most of the Upstate, NE GA,
and the Charlotte Metro area for Saturday afternoon. Hot and humid
weather continues into next week, with triple digit heat index
values expected over the low terrain each afternoon.
The upper anticyclone is forecast to remain to our west but still
close enough for high heights and thickness values to remain in
place over our area through much of the period. This keeps well
above normal high temperatures, but short of records, across the
area. Elevated dewpoints will be seen each afternoon allowing heat
index values to rise above 105 along and south of the I-85 corridor.
Spotty locations across the I-40 corridor could briefly reach 105 as
well. Additional Heat Advisories are likely through the period. The
guidance highs and dewpoints continue to waffle keeping confidence
low that any location will see heat index values reach 110. That
said, it will be possible over the Lakelands, so will continue to
monitor.
A Heat Advisory remains in effect for Saturday for most of the SC
Upstate, NE GA, and the Charlotte Metro area.
Key message 2: Scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms develop
each afternoon into early next week. Some strong to severe storms,
as well as isolated nuisance flooding, will be possible each day.
With upper ridging to our west, MCVs from overnight MCSs will
continue to track over our area through the weekend. This keeps
scattered diurnal convection over the area with Saturday having a
higher probability due to a weak surface boundary dropping toward
the area. The boundary and the MCV track moves back north next week
bringing more typical diurnal convective chances. The very unstable
air mass along with steep lapse rates and DCAPE keeps the threat of
strong to severe storms over the area as well. Chances higher on
Saturday with more organization from the frontal boundary. Isolated
flooding also possible with high PW values and slow moving storms.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Most showers and thunderstorms have shifted
south of the area as all terminals should remain dry through tonight
and Saturday morning. Leftover cloud debris from earlier showers and
thunderstorms will likely stick around for the next few hours. Winds
are expected to go mostly light and variable overnight tonight
and pick up out of the north to northwest on Saturday. Guidance
continues to show mountain valley fog/low stratus before daybreak
Saturday, so hinted at this at KAVL with MVFR vsby and SCT003
cigs, but confidence isn`t high enough for lower restrictions at
this time. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected
Saturday afternoon and evening across the area, so placed a PROB30
for TSRA and associated restrictions at all TAF sites.
Outlook: Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible each afternoon
with flight restrictions possible for low stratus and fog each
morning, especially in the mountain valleys.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for GAZ018-026-
028-029.
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for NCZ070>072-
082.
SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for SCZ008>014-
019-104>109.
&&
$$
CAC
NWS GSP Office Area Forecast Discussion
